One in five people in the EU, 92.7 million in 2025, lives at risk of poverty or social exclusion, which Eurostat defines as living in a household with at least one of three poverty and exclusion risks. The EU poverty target is to cut that number by at least 15 million by 2030. The Council’s Social Protection Committee has now put a figure on the pace that requires: a fall of at least 2.3 million a year. Last year the number fell by 0.5 million.
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Last year delivered about a fifth of the poverty target pace
The committee’s key messages went to member states on 5 October for endorsement on 19 October. They put progress since 2019 at about 3.5 million fewer people at risk. Reaching the 2030 targets needs an average fall of at least 2.3 million per year, and the document says this “will require stronger, sustained and more coordinated efforts.”
The 2025 fall of 0.5 million equals roughly 22% of that required pace. Children are further behind. Child poverty and social exclusion fell by about 0.2 million in 2025, the gap to the 2030 child target is about 5 million, and the committee notes that child poverty fell in only a few countries.
A strategy that arrives without its own money
The Commission presented its first Anti-Poverty Strategy on 6 May 2026. It sets a path towards the 2030 target and the goal of ending poverty by 2050. Executive Vice-President Roxana Mînzatu told the launch that “this strategy is about a choice.”
The choice came without a dedicated budget. Social Platform, a network of social NGOs, says the Commission “did not propose any dedicated funding for the Strategy’s implementation” and urges member states to make maximum use of existing funds.
A summary of the package lists €50.2 billion from the European Social Fund Plus and at least €100 billion for social policies in the next long-term budget. Social Platform says the proposed budget does not earmark key anti-poverty funds, the Social Fund Plus among them.
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The legal weight is light. The strategy and its communications are policy documents, and the housing measure is a proposed Council recommendation that member states must still discuss and adopt. The Left’s João Oliveira said the plan “lacks the funding and commitments needed to succeed,” while the Socialists’ Estelle Ceulemans called the 2050 date “far too distant.”
The jobs bet is the weak point
The economy described by the Council committee should have helped. EU growth held near 1.5% in 2025, unemployment stayed at historically low levels, and real household incomes remain well above 2019. Poverty still barely moved.
The same document says social protection became less effective at reducing poverty among jobless and near-jobless households, and that the position of young people barely changed. Social Platform makes the matching criticism of the strategy: it leans too heavily on income and labour market integration, and employment is not always the way out of poverty.
The Commission’s case is that more work will pull people out. A summary of its package says higher employment could lift more than 1.7 million children out of poverty, and that more than 50 million people could work but sit outside the labour market. That is a real reserve. But the same summary puts in-work poverty at about 1 in 8 workers, around 16 million people, so a job alone does not settle the question.
Who sits behind the average
Some groups carry the risk far above the mean. Eurostat’s 2026 living conditions report finds that people with disabilities face a higher risk of poverty or social exclusion in every EU country, and that households with very low work intensity are the other most exposed group. The Commission puts the number of children at risk at 19.3 million.
Housing sits underneath much of this. The Commission says housing prices have risen by 60% since 2013 and counts around 1 million homeless people at the launch in May. Its statement of 16 October puts the figure at more than 1.4 million people homeless or without secure housing, and the two numbers come from separate communications.
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Where poverty fell and where it rose
The EU average hides opposite movements. Between 2024 and 2025 the risk fell significantly in Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Portugal, and rose significantly in Austria, Greece, Ireland, Slovenia and Sweden. About two thirds of member states saw no significant change.
Levels differ more than movements. Eurostat data for 2025 put Bulgaria at about 29.0%, Greece at 27.5% and Romania at 27.4%, against 11.5% in Czechia, 15.0% in Poland and 15.5% in Slovenia. Spain stands at 25.7%, Italy at 22.6%, Germany at 21.2% and France at 20.8%.
Inside countries the gaps are wider still. Eurostat regional data put Calabria in Italy at 45.3% and Valle d’Aosta in the same country at 5.6%. Brussels stands at 33.6% against 16.5% for Belgium as a whole, and Vienna sits 10.6 points above Austria’s average. A national plan that targets the average misses the places where the risk is concentrated.
The dated steps are recommendations and indicators
The Commission’s 16 October statement lists what comes next: a recommendation on in-work poverty and one on easier access to social services, both in 2027, and new poverty indicators in 2028. A consultation of social partners on possible legal action for people outside the labour market is planned for later in 2026.
Renew Europe doubted that a legislative act on quality jobs, expected at the end of 2026, would deliver the promised fall in poverty. The European Anti Poverty Network welcomed the strategy and warned that without concrete action it “will remain words on paper.” EAPN also points to underinvestment in social rights alongside a growing focus on defence, security and competitiveness.
The committee’s arithmetic leaves little to argue about. The requirement is 2.3 million fewer people at risk each year, the latest result is 0.5 million, and the dated steps ahead are recommendations in 2027 and new indicators in 2028.
BASIS OF ANALYSIS
Basis of analysis. The analysis rests on 11 sources, of which two are Council documents and one a Commission page. The strategy text itself was not read, so the funding and employment figures come through a summary of the package, and the country annex to the Council note was read in extract.
Sources
- Council of the EU: Key social challenges, Social Protection Committee key messages (5 October 2026) – documents progress since 2019, the required pace and the 2025 child poverty fall.
- Council of the EU: Annex to the 2026 Social Protection Performance Monitor review – documents the 2025 EU total and the countries with significant changes.
- European Commission: Commission proposes new measures to address poverty and the housing crisis (6 May 2026) – documents the 2030 target wording, the proposed recommendation and the housing figures.
- Lovguiden: Commission statement summary on poverty (16 October 2026) – documents the 2027 and 2028 steps and the child and homelessness figures.
- IEU Monitoring: EU Commission unveils landmark anti-poverty package (May 2026) – documents the funding figures, employment estimates and in-work poverty figure.
- Social Platform: The EU’s new Anti-Poverty Strategy is out, now it must deliver – documents the criticism of funding and the focus on employment.
- European Anti Poverty Network: Reaction to the EU Anti-Poverty Strategy (6 May 2026) – documents the criticism of missing binding targets.
- Agence Europe: MEPs deplore lack of funding and concrete provisions – documents the statements of Ceulemans and Oliveira.
- Euronews: Europe’s poverty divide (18 May 2026) – documents country, capital and regional rates from Eurostat.
- Romania Insider: Eurostat, Bulgaria and Romania most exposed to poverty (May 2026) – documents the highest and lowest national rates for 2025.
- Brussels Times: 92.7 million in EU at risk of poverty by 2025 (17 September 2026) – documents the Eurostat living conditions findings on disability and work intensity.
